Main card preview, like the last time. Hopefully getting more and more accurate as I go.
Brandon "The Truth" Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Vera seems to have been "the next big thing" for a while but hasn't looked too impressive since he dropped to 205. Soszynski, who has a name only mothers and Scrabble players could love, was a solid IFL fighter who has gone 3-0 since joining the UFC.
It's hard for me to pick Vera because I never really know where he is mentally. He can be an offensive threat with his kickboxing and jiujitsu but he's looked somewhat sluggish in some of his recent fights. K-Sos also has a diverse game and always shows up for a scrap. I think he'll be able to impose his will on Vera on the feet and establish a decent enough top game if it hits the ground to win a decision.
Chris "The Crippler" Leben vs. Jake Rosholt
Leben, one of the stars of the original Ultimate Fighter reality series, has been out for about a year after a steroid suspension following his fight with Michael Bisping. He's a southpaw striker with a strong chin and big heart. Rosholt is a decorated wrestler who was a hyped prospect when he entered the WEC, going 1-0 before transitioning to the UFC and promptly losing in a matter of minutes to Dan Miller.
It's hard to tell if the UFC is trying to rebuild Leben or to give Rosholt a signature win. I'm leaning towards the former because with 6 fights, I don't think Rosholt is equipped to handle what Leben will bring. Leben hasn't faced a wrestler of Rosholt's caliber, but he's a veteran with decent skills in all areas and should be able to damage Rosholt enough on the feet to get a KO or TKO finish sometime in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Demian Maia vs. Nate "The Great" Marquardt
This was once billed a bout to determine the #1 contender bout at middleweight, but Dan Henderson's recent win has complicated things a bit. Regardless, whoever wins this fight is in a great position to fight for the title in either his next fight or the one after. Maia, a wizard on the ground, has dominated each of his UFC opponents going 5-0 in the organization with 5 submission victories. Marquardt, a former King of Pancrase, already earned a title shot, losing to Anderson Silva. He's been widely regarded as one of the top fighters at 185 for some time, a strong combatant with a complete game.
The difficult thing about this fight is that we don't really know much about Maia's cardio or striking game. He's been so effective at getting the takedown and finishing the fight that that's pretty much all we've seen from him. Nate we know is a powerful guy who won't be easy to take down. Even if Maia does manage the takedown, I think Marquardt has enough experience to escape and get the fight back to the feet. I like Nate to control the pace standing and stay out of danger on the ground to take the decision.
Thiago Silva vs. Keith "The Dean of Mean" Jardine
Thiago is one of many fearsome Brazilian strikers with power on the feet and strong ground and pound. Jardine fights out of Greg Jackson's camp in Alberquerque so you know he'll come prepared. He's an unorthodox striker who's most effective when he stays on the outside throwing leg kicks and working from different angles.
This should actually be a pretty close fight, but since Jardine's alternated wins and losses for his past 6 fights, I like Jardine to win this one as he's coming off a loss. I could see him frustrating Silva on the feet and jabbing his way to a decision or possibly finishing Silva late in the fight if he can wear him out.
Randy "the Natural" Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
A fight between two legends, this fight undoubtedly would have been more interesting several years ago when the 46 year old Couture and the 33 year old Nogueira were a little more fresh. Couture is the elder fighter, but Nogueira has been through more wars, suffering beat downs from Fedor (three times), Cro Cop, and Bob Sapp to name a few, even though he did win a couple of those fights. He looked terrible in his last fight, but it's hard to gain much from that as he was battling a bad knee and staph infection.
Still, Couture has considerably less MMA fights to his credit and has looked competitive in his past few fights against much younger competition. Standing the fight should be fairly even with Nogueira's boxing skills prevailing on the outside but Couture's dirty boxing and clinch work helping him win on the inside. The ground is where it should be interesting with Nogueira's top notch MMA jiujitsu against Couture's ground control and ground and pound. I'm going with Couture here hoping he's smart enough to avoid dangerous positions on the ground and to be content with fighting where he can control Nogueira. I could see him taking a decision or pounding Nogueira out using his superior cardio.
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