Thursday, April 22, 2010

Global Warming: The perfectly designed problem

I've been reading this book called Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely. It's great and I've enjoyed it a lot so far. Very interesting read.

But to back up a little, I participated in an experiment several weeks ago for some people's thesis project. It was a paid experiment, which was nice. Anyway, they were studying cheating and kind of drew their inspiration from Ariely. A few weeks later, I went to see their thesis defense, mainly just to find out what the heck the experiment was all about and also because Ariely was coming to speak.

Here's one of his TED talks: http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_ariely_on_our_buggy_moral_code.html

He passed out books after his lecture and I've been slowly making my way through that. Anyway, now that that roundabout explanation is out of the way, I figure I'd share something he said that I found interesting during his lecture.

Ariely spoke about global warming and how it was perfect...if you wanted to design a problem that nobody cared about. He listed a few reasons, and they all made sense. It's a problem that won't have major ramifications in our lifetime. Not only that, but every effort we make to fight it is just a drop in the bucket. Also, we don't know the victims. Of course we know conceptually that it will be our descendants (or rather our descendants' descendants), but we can't even attach a name or face to any of them because they're so far off.

Not that I personally care too much about global warming, but it was interesting to think about it from this perspective. Honestly, I found most of what Ariely had to say, both in his lecture and book, to be really fascinating because of the way he approaches things as a behavioral economist. Why do placebos work? How do our expectations affect our perceptions? Why do we go crazy over anything and everything that's free? I'd definitely recommend checking it out.

Happy Earth Day!

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Justin Bieber: Rappers like me! YAY! *turns back to her coloring books*

I was reading a certain basketball blog today and I came across something called the Dunning-Kruger Effect (full disclosure: it was used to refer to Paul Pierce). From the abstract:

People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it.

My attempt at breaking it down and simplifying it is this: sometimes, people suck too much and are too stupid to realize how much they suck/how stupid they are. Not only that, but their suckiness/stupidity also causes them to believe that other people (who don't suck as much/aren't as stupid) are actually suckier/stupider than they actually are. Boy that paragraph was fun to type.

Anyway, the point is it's a vicious cycle of basically not know what is going on.

What could this possibly have to do with Justin Bieber?
http://amygrindhouse.com/justin-bieber-overestimating-street-cred.html

Sunday, April 11, 2010

The Rules of Engagement

UFC 112 went down this past weekend and while I won't bore you with results, I do want to talk about the main event, which saw middleweight champion Anderson Silva win a bizarre decision over challenger Demian Maia. By "bizarre" I mean a 25 minute fight featuring stretches of inactivity, taunting by Silva, and an unwillingness to engage in general. Sadly, this wasn't the first time we've seen this from the man they call The Spider.

Just for a little background, Silva is one of the most dynamic strikers in mixed martial arts and, in my opinion, the best striker MMA has had ever. Of course, I have only been following MMA for maybe 5 or 6 years so I didn't see the primes of many of the old school guys. But what I know is this: Silva has remarkable accuracy, landing punches and kicks at a higher percentage than any one I know of. He also has incredible power which, combined with his accuracy, helps him score many quick knockdowns and knockouts. His movement is superb as he dances (sometimes literally) around the ring/octagon, moving his feet and head quickly to not only avoid getting hit, but also put himself in the best position to counter. And finally, he has a diverse striking game. From his fearsome boxing to his deadly muay thai clinch to his lightning fast kicks and knees, Silva has it all.

His UFC reign has reflected as much. He debuted in 2006 against Chris Leben, dispatching him without missing a single punch while also not getting hit. His next fight was for Rich Franklin's title, and Silva's been champion ever since, not having lost a fight in over 4 years (6 if you disregard the DQ).

So how do you explain yet another odd, lackluster performance? Well, I believe it starts with Dana White and Joe Silva. White is the outspoken president of the UFC and Joe Silva is the organization's matchmaker. Originally this title shot was supposed to go to wrestler Chael Sonnen, but after he got hurt, they selected Maia to fill in. This is not really a fight fans wanted to see. We wanted Silva to rematch Nate Marquardt or possibly change weight classes to fight stiffer competition. With all due respect, Maia is a jiujitsu ace and poses no threat to Silva as neither his standup nor wrestling is good enough to force the fight to the mat where he has an advantage. The last time Silva was matched up against a pure jiujitsu fighter was UFC 97 against Thales Leites, and the result was much the same with Silva resorting to playground tactics and messing around, even throwing a leg punch in the middle of the fight.

Briefly, I think this issue is a big problem in MMA and one of the reasons I hesitate to call it a sport. There's no official ranking system and sometimes the guys who are best prepared for and capable of a successful title shot aren't always the guys who deserve it or have earned it and vice versa. A lot of the matchmaking is purely subjective and used to build certain guys up or put together matches fans want to see. I'm not saying this is a bad thing but it does make it harder to rank guys.

Unlucky injury and questionable matchmaking aside, Demian Maia also has to shoulder some of the blame. Good for him for not being baited by Silva, but at the same time, his lack of a standup game and his fear of striking with Silva (well-warranted as it may be) contributed to Silva's lack of interest. I hate to generalize, but there have been many Brazilian jiujitsu-based fighters who seem to have either an inability or an unwillingness to improve their striking. While their ground game is still amazing to watch, this lack of well-roundedness doesn't lend itself well to higher level fights or any fight where their opponent can keep the fight on its feet. In the end, the challenger is the one who's supposed to take the fight to the champion, not wait and hope the champ falls into his guard.

But there's no doubt that the majority of the blame for this main event which Dana White called a "disgrace" and an "embarrassment" falls on Anderson Silva himself. I don't really get his post-fight apology or his assertions that Maia disrespected him somehow. Silva said that to punish him, he wanted to make him feel vulnerable. What could make a man feel more vulnerable than a violent barrage of fists and knees? Silva is well equipped to deliver this assault and showed in the early rounds that he could batter Maia with whatever he wanted whenever he wanted. Yet he was content with dancing outside striking range, taunting Maia to come forward. White made a Mike Tyson reference saying that to best show your dominance, just finish your opponent as fast as possible instead of circling for 25 minutes.

While it would help if the matchmaking put tougher opponents in front of Silva, ultimately it's up to him (and to a lesser extent his camp) to get him motivated for each and every fight. When he shows up with the mindset of attacking his opponent and finishing the fight, he is the most exciting fighter in the game (see his fights with Rich Franklin, Forrest Griffin, Carlos Newton and Tony Fryklund for some examples). But the problem is he doesn't always bring it, he doesn't always come out with that same fire that the great champions had. And as he grows more and more uninterested, so do we.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

112-101

Well the game was fairly entertaining to watch, but let's take stock of that list I put up yesterday.

- Amar'''''''''e Stoudemire posterizing a Spur
Didn't happen, although he threw down some pretty vicious looking dunks.

- DeJuan Blair posterizing a Sun
- DeJuan Blair grabbing 15+ rebounds
Don't think he even dunked at all and he only grabbed 8 rebounds. However, he also only got 15 minutes of playing time so that's pretty darn impressive. It did seem like he had magnets on his hands while he was out there.

- Jared "JMZ" Dudley catching fire and hitting 5+ 3 pointers
Sadly, it didn't happen as he only hit 1 of his 3 three point attempts. Roger Mason of the Spurs came close, as he hit 4 3s in 9 tries. When he first stepped on the floor, he couldn't miss.

- Manu Ginobili dropping 40+ points
- Anyone yelling "GINOBILI" like Charles Barkley
- Manu Ginobili demolishing somebody going up for a dunk
Also sadly, Manu put up somewhat of a clunker tonight. 5-14 shooting, didn't earn a single trip to the line and only 3 rebounds and 4 assists. So basically there weren't very many opportunities to yell his name. Disappointing.

- Any moment where Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess or Tim Duncan tries to do something only to leave the impression, "Man, they look ooooooooooold"
Jefferson and McDyess actually had pretty decent games. Jefferson put up 17 on 60% shooting from the field while McDyess pulled down 7 rebounds and dished out 4 assists in 21 minutes of playing time. Duncan however, did look a bit off. His final line actually looks kind of decent, but far from Duncan-esque.

- Taylor Griffin getting playing time.
Well, he got assigned to the D-League before the game so...no.

- Jason Richardson slamming a monster dunk
- Jason Richardson missing a dunk
No misses, and he did slam down a big two-hander. However, it was sort of disappointing since I was really hoping for a 360 or a windmill or something more exotic given that it happened on a 5-on-0 fastbreak. He had another fastbreak opportunity a bit later but threw down an even more vanilla dunk. Maybe that miss was still in his head, who knows.

- Goran Dragic faceplanting again after a dunk
Not even a dunk from Goran. He had a chance I thought could possibly have worked, but he just went for a layup instead. Yawn.

- Eva Longoria (Parker)
Pretty sure she wasn't in attendance. Not that we sat close enough to be able to see anyway but yeah.

So clearly, if this list was a game of BINGO I would have been nowhere close to finishing, but that's alright. It was still a good game to watch and close for the most part until the Suns started pulling away. We'll see what this 112-101 victory means for both teams in the end. For now, it allows the Suns to keep pace with Dallas and Denver, who both won tonight, as the three of them pull slightly ahead of Utah, who also played tonight but lost in Houston. As for the Spurs, they fall into a three-way tie at the 6-8 spots with Portland, who beat the Clippers, and the Oklahoma City Zombie Sonics, who lost to Denver. Aside from the Laker's 4.5 game cushion, the whole Western Conference playoff picture is extremely tight, and each remaining game has huge playoff implications riding on it. Should be fun to watch.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Where Amazing Happens?

Going to a Suns/Spurs game tomorrow night. It should be pretty fun. I enjoy watching basketball and both those teams are pretty solid and still have something to play for so it should be good. However, I don't particularly like either team, and I don't dislike either of them more than the other enough to root against them. So instead of trying to pick one to cheer for for the night, there are just some specific events that I think would be cool to see and I'll be rooting for those. Maybe it's because it would be good in a basketball sense, or it might just be something that I think would be entertaining and/or funny. In no particular order:

- Amar'''''''''e Stoudemire posterizing a Spur
- DeJuan Blair posterizing a Sun
- DeJuan Blair grabbing 15+ rebounds
- Jared "JMZ" Dudley catching fire and hitting 5+ 3 pointers
- Manu Ginobili dropping 40+ points
- Anyone yelling "GINOBILI" like Charles Barkley
- Manu Ginobili demolishing somebody going up for a dunk
- Any moment where Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess or Tim Duncan tries to do something only to leave the impression, "Man, they look ooooooooooold"
- Taylor Griffin getting playing time.
- Jason Richardson slamming a monster dunk
- Jason Richardson missing a dunk
- Goran Dragic faceplanting again after a dunk
- Eva Longoria (Parker)

Monday, April 5, 2010

Another Random Thought...

...which is considerably different from the first.

I remember reading a verse I liked during my QTs this afternoon but I couldn't remember exactly what it was. I'm going to look it up right now and type it.

~finding time~

Ok so it was in Acts 4, but Peter and John quoted it from Psalms so I'm just going to write that verse.

Psalm 2:1-2
Why do the nations conspire
and the peoples plot in vain?
The kings of the earth take their stand
and the rulers gather together
against the LORD
and against his Anointed One.


It can kind of be discouraging being a believer in today's times. Morals are thrown out the window and people just generally do what they want. Sometimes it seems like everyone is just ignoring and rejecting any semblance of meaning for whatever feels good or what the hot new trend is.
And yet, this Psalm was written way back in the day in King David's time. Then it came to fruition years and years later in Jesus' (<-- there's a grammar lesson to be had but that's neither here nor there) time. That the world rejects God's salvation is not some new issue that our generation is stuck with, but something that's been going on for a long, long time. Realizing this reminded me that there is a real sense of urgency to advance the Gospel instead of just sitting and waiting for who knows what.

A Totally Random Thought...

...that I just had while making a cheat sheet for a SCM test tomorrow.

I wish "ballin!" was still cool to say. And with the hand motion too. For sure.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2JfY-nVaqg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGt-Wcyhg3o&feature=related

Friday, April 2, 2010

Quick Hits: Clash of the Titans

Went to go see Clash of the Titans earlier tonight. The trailers looked pretty dumb so I had my expectations firmly set at around 300ish levels. As long as it provided some sweet action scenes and good fight sequences, I'd be satisfied. Anyway.

- They didn't actually botch the Perseus myth as badly as I thought they might have. Of course, a lot of things weren't as according to the original myth but it was excusable.

- There was a lot of dialogue, not enough fighting. There were really only a handful, and they weren't that great.

- None of the Titans make a single appearance. They only get one mention in the entire movie and that's during the opening voiceover when it's explained that Zeus and the Olympians overthrew the Titans. Strange that they're not a part of the film at all considering it's called Clash of the Titans.

- Everyone hoping for an epic battle with the kraken, you can forget it. This was probably the only part of the movie I was actually disappointed with. There's really no fighting at all, just an extended sequence of it rising up. What happens after that is extremely short.

- The gods really weren't in it much at all either. Zeus and Hades play a big role, but beyond that, pretty much only Apollo and Poseidon have lines at all.

- It was pretty hard for me to take Mads Mikkelsen as Draco (not Malfoy) seriously. When he first came out, I thought it was the Rock, but then after I recognized who it was, I wanted to shout out "Le Chiffre" every time he came on screen.

- The Perseus/Io dynamic was...odd. I'll leave it at that.

- Can we officially give up on Sam Worthington as a leading man? I've seen him in Terminator Salvation, Avatar and Clash of the Titans. Avatar was the only one out of the three that was decent, and that was more due to the concept, cinematography and computer graphics. Put that aside and those three movies were pretty brutal, especially from an acting standpoint. To me, he seems more fit as a "grunt" character, maybe a secondary hero/villain who just kicks butt and doesn't say much.