ESPN's reporting that a deal's been made between the Los Angeles Clippers and New Orleans Hornets where the Clippers will get Chris Paul and 2 future 2nd round draft picks in exchange for Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Minnesota's unprotected 2012 1st round pick. This took place a couple days after the Clippers refused to include Gordon and Minny's pick (two of their best trade assets).
Here's why I like the deal:
- You need a superstar to win in the NBA. The Clippers have that in Blake Griffin and the whole idea is to keep him around. Making a bold move for another superstar in Chris Paul does this.
- Gordon is the centerpiece of this package and arguably the best young shooting guard in the league. However, it's hard to see how the Clippers would be able to pay him and Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, assuming the three of them will command max (or very close to max) deals, which I think is a fair assumption.
- Kaman and Aminu are not big losses. Kaman's most valuable attribute was his expiring contract as a trade chip. Aminu's a nice young player but likely won't be anything more than an average forward in the NBA.
- I think the pick might be a little overrated. As Clipper fans we were obviously hoping for Minnesota to be terrible so we get a lottery pick, but that's looking a lot less certain than it did last year. The Timberwolves made a great coaching change (dumping Kurt Rambis for Rick Adelman) and have a lot of young talent (Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Derrick Williams) and decent depth which should help them in the shortened season. Not that I'd expect them to be a playoff team, but it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
- Chris Paul throwing lobs to Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. If you're not excited for that, I don't know what to tell you.
Here's why I don't like the deal:
- I was so impressed with the Clippers' refusal to give in to David Stern's demands for basically all of their best trade assets (Gordon, Kaman, Aminu, Minny pick, Eric Bledsoe). There's a report that the Lakers are back in talks and now the Clippers go back and agree to essentially the same deal without Bledsoe (who's injured to start the season)? There's definitely a sense of desperation and weakness here. On the other hand, Chris Paul is the kind of player you take this risk for unless...
- There's evidence that Chris Paul is on the decline. He's missed close to 40 games the past two seasons and does not look like the CHRIS PAUL that he was just a few years ago. Whether or not he still has a gimpy knee, you have to wonder what kind of negative impact his past injuries have already had. As long as he's on the court he's still an elite point guard, but he might not be the unquestioned top dog in the league anymore.
- I thought the point of acquiring Chauncey Billups was to create leverage and show the league that the Clippers didn't need to do a deal for Chris Paul. A Billups/Gordon/Butler/Griffin/Jordan lineup is already pretty formidable in my mind. Now the Clippers (for now) are loaded with Paul, Billups, Mo Williams and Bledsoe at point guard. It looks like Billups will start at the 2 guard alongside Paul with combo guard Randy Foye backing him up.
- They didn't really need to do the deal now in my opinion. Carmelo Anthony wasn't traded for months. The Clippers didn't have any rush to get rid of any of their assets (I guess the Minnesota pick could have decreased in value if they had a hot start) and could have at least seen how their current roster did before revisiting trade talks.
- I'm not sure on the details, but I'm fairly certain there is no guarantee or promise from Paul that he'll stay long term. I think he's agreed to opt in for next season, but beyond that who knows.
Ultimately all roster moves are a crapshoot to some extent. Paul could be back to his pre-injury form and tossing up insane lobs all over the place and, alongside Blake Griffin, lead the Clippers to the playoffs year after year. Or maybe he'll get hurt, leave after two years and Eric Gordon will develop into the best shooting guard in the league. Obviously we don't know, and the truth is likely to be somewhere in the middle. It's a high risk-high reward move that could pay off big time for one, both, or neither of the teams. Of course it's that not knowing, the excitement of uncertainty that makes it so fun to be a sports fan.
