Sunday, September 9, 2012

...or is this just Fantasy (football)?

Happy week 1 of fantasy football everybody. It's a joyous time of the year where we get to sit around, watch football, then brag about how our team crushed everyone...or make excuses for why this week went so poorly and we'll turn it around soon.

But it's not all fun and games, and one of the things that sucks most about fantasy is also one of the worst parts about the real NFL: injuries.

Sure, sure, in real life it's about a man's health and livelihood, but in the realm of fantasy, owners are plagued by who to start, not knowing who's going to play or how much someone's going to play even if they get on the field.

I have the great fortune to be in this quandary already at the beginning of the season, not knowing whether to go with players who will play but may be limited (Trent Richardson, Jamaal Charles) or capable backups who could get the lion's share of playing time today or just as easily take a backseat (Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings).

I could tweak lineups forever, but whenever I start feeling a little stressed, I think about my two favorite fantasy anecdotes. (Here and here)

The first is a story about Matt Hasselbeck from a few years ago when he was still with the Seahawks. I'll let Matthew Berry take it away.


It should shock no one that Matt went QB-heavy with his team, drafting not only himself but also his former real-life Packers teammate, Brett Favre
Like many people I meet, it's Matt's first-year playing fantasy. But he showed the objectivity of a wily veteran when, in Week 5, he decided to bench himself for the ol' gunslinger. It made sense. Favre was coming off a red-hot dismantling of Green Bay on "Monday Night Football," had seven scores in his past three games and was facing the Rams, among the worst pass defenses in the league. 
I'll save you the trouble of looking it up. Brett threw for 232 yards, only one score (plus a pick) and finished with 11 fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring. Sixteen different quarterbacks finished with more points than Brett that week, including such names as Josh JohnsonChad Henne and Daunte Culpepper (against the Steelers!).
And sitting on Matt Hasselbeck's bench was, well, Matt Hasselbeck, who threw for four scores against the Jaguars and finished with 27 fantasy points. More than Tom Brady,Peyton Manning or any other quarterback that week. 
Think about that. He knew the game plan, he had as much control over an NFL game as any fantasy player could ever have, he wound up as the highest-scoring player at his position in the league … 
… AND HE WAS SITTING ON HIS OWN BENCH
The second story is somewhat similar, coming from Washington Redskins tight end Chris Cooley.

“The game [Roy] Helu started, San Francisco, I walked up to [Ryan] Torain in the locker room and said Dude you’re starting on my fantasy team this week and I’m hoping for a big week, I’m playing my wife,”Cooley said on the Junkies Friday morning. 
“And he’s like,Oh, cool man, yeah, I’ll see what I can do,” Cooley continued. “I went out to the field, and Helu starts. I’m in the LOCKER ROOM and I don’t know who’s starting. So it’s kind of a mix-up, and I’m not exactly sure what we’re doing or who’s going in.” 
Moral of the story? Don't worry so much about it because EVEN THE PLAYERS don't always know what's going on. All we can do is do our best and hope the Shivas of fantasy football look upon us favorably.  Hopefully I can actually take my own advice.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Old Habits Die Hard

With one more (at least I think only one) fantasy football draft to go, I was thinking about players one last time, and when I was looking at how I rated/tiered players, I realize that even though it's a different year, I fall into the same habits.

Do I have a good reason for this? No, not at all. I've pretty rarely been successful at fantasy football so it's not like I trust in my instincts to help me win since it hasn't worked out that way before. Am I even doing this on purpose? Not really, although I think my laziness has something to do with it.

But somehow I inevitably start thinking of players in the same way year after year, always getting sucked into the same traps. Let me show you what I mean.

The Jacoby Jones

I first started playing fantasy football a few years ago, and of course, I wanted to prepare myself by looking up all the best sleepers that no one else would know (this before I realized everyone reads similar stuff and therefore like similar players). I read about this guy, Jacoby Jones, WR Houston Texans. What could go wrong? He was a burner playing across Andre Johnson (actually that was Kevin Walter, but I KNEW Jones would take over) in a high powered offense and ready for a breakout (it was his 3rd year in the league). I thought he had the talent and the opportunity.

Flash forward to 2012 and Jones has just about over 100 receptions...for his career. Safe to say that didn't pan out, and it's been the running game that's taken over the show in Houston.

What did I learn here? Just because someone is fast and black and playing with a competent quarterback doesn't spell fantasy success. Does this stop me from picking up these WR hoping they'll break a 70 yard TD every game? Not at all. I'm the Al Davis of fantasy.

My 2012 Jacoby Jones: Alshon Jeffery (I actually still really like this guy. He's apparently big and got great hands, which could easily lead the Bears to feature him in red zone situations. Still, playing opposite Brandon Marshall and with a big armed QB may not matter if Matt Forte runs everything in.)

On the other hand...

The Denarius Moore

Last year I played in like a 20 something team NFL.com league. It was DEEP. And therefore I had to read up on much deeper sleepers than usual (at the end of the year I had guys like Jackie Battle, Preston Parker, and Dezmon Briscoe on my team. 10 points if you can name where they play this year...or last year).

I heard about this Denarius Moore kid in training camp and was immediately skeptical. He was playing for the Raiders, a team known for young players who flameout and Darius Heyward-Bey's name wasn't far from anyone thinking of picking a Raiders' WR. It was pretty clear that Darren McFadden would be the focal point, and even though Moore was looking good in camp, he still had to contend with incumbents Heyward-Bey, Chaz Schilens, and Jacoby Ford.

Then the season started, the guys in front of him got hurt, Moore got on the field and started doing things like this. Turns out he wasn't the usual Al Davis type who just flies down the field. Moore's big and has great hands as well, and injuries opened up opportunity for him.

It's easy to write off under the radar rookie WR as most of them don't do so well in the NFL. But as late round picks they can have really good value, especially ones who go late in the real NFL draft or even sign as undrafted free agents. Although it's a high profile position, WR is a relatively easy position to fill cheaply in the league, which can lead to people emerging out of nowhere after a fortuitous camp invite (see: Victor Cruz).

My 2012 Denarius Moore: Rod Streater (It's too obvious. He's the rookie WR in Oakland who's going to get playing time with Moore and Ford hurt. He's versatile and catches everything.)

The Cam Newton

Rookie quarterbacks never do anything right? They have to adjust to the speed of the game, the complexity of NFL defenses, and learning how to take command of an NFL huddle.

Cam threw all that out the window and had a monster fantasy year last season. Turns out the tools he used in college translated just fine to the big leagues. His huge frame and tremendous speed which blew college defenders away still got the job done in the pros. He added a disciplined regimen to learn the offense and surpassed most people's expectations as a passer, reviving Steve Smith's career in the process.

I still generally try to avoid rookies, but man, after a year like that, you have to consider the possibility that someone can repeat that.

My 2012 Cam Newton: Andrew Luck (RGIII is the easiest comparison, but I think he might be getting a little overdrafted. Luck is often available late, and since the Colts will probably be pretty bad again, he's going to get to throw a lot. He's smart and an excellent passer already. These qualities translate to the next level, it's just a matter of getting that game experience and feel for how defenses will play him. Who knows, maybe he can resurrect Reggie Wayne's career after a down season.)

One more, and it will be...

The Shonn Greene

Shonn Greene has the dubious distinction of fooling me several years in a row. One of the reasons RBs are so highly valued in fantasy football is consistency. Back in the day when teams had a featured back, you could count on even lower tiered backs for a solid 8-15 points a game just based on sheer volume. If you were getting 20 carries and resembled an NFL starter, you could probably manage 60-70 yards on the ground and maybe another 10 in the air at minimum. And if you could fall into the end zone once or twice, that's a bonus.

Greene was going to be the ultimate volume back. Sure he didn't look like he was going to be a worldbeater, but what were the Jets going to do? Throw it?

Greene's backups over the past couple years have been guys like Joe McKnight and an older Thomas Jones. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that he could take over the lead back role and flourish as an RB1 option. Unfortunately, he fell into that 8-15 point scorer category. Not catastrophic, but when your team wants to play smash mouth and your QB is Mark Sanchez, you'd think you'd have enough opportunity to break 100 yards more than 3 times in 2 years.

Still, what made Greene attractive basically applies today. He's got the job (Bilal Powell is his backup and likely 3rd down back) and will get carries. Just don't do anything cute and draft him for more than what he is: a low RB2/flex player.

My 2012 Shonn Greene: Doug Martin (There are certainly differences. Martin is much more of a playmaker than Greene and can actually play on 3rd downs. But like Greene, it's kind of assumed that he'll get 20+ carries a game even with the presence of LeGarrette Blount, who was a starting caliber RB last year. Not saying he won't, but even with Blount fading fast in the past few weeks, the fact that he's been in the league and done work before gives me pause before I take Martin as a clear RB1).


As always, the lesson is: never listen to me when I'm talking about fantasy sports. I'll probably just end up giving you bad advice.