I was on Grantland.com today reading Ben Cohen's piece on the NBA draft. One thought in particular caught my attention:
"No day on the NBA calendar packs more risk than draft night, and trades are the riskiest part about it. They require front offices to forecast the potential of players who have never set foot on NBA hardwood and then swap these prospects for assets that might be more certain, less certain, or much less certain."
He's right. The draft is such an inexact science as teams, GMs, agents, and writers try to navigate the realm of eligible players with video, stats, anecdotes and, sometimes, gut feel. You never quite know what a given player is going to become in the pros, but it's this uncertainty that makes draft night so exhilarating.
This year is no exception. With the draft less than two days away, all the speculation, posturing, trade talks and the like are really heating up. Just wanted to throw down some random thoughts.
- Should probably preface this by saying that I really haven't seen most of these guys play. I really don't have the time (nor interesting in NCAA or Euro ball) to keep up, but I've tried to compensate as much as I could by reading. So there's that.
- It's always interesting to see the changes in players' draft stock as time goes on. Since I really started trying to read up on these prospects (pretty much when the Lakers got eliminated) until now, there have been some dramatic movements. It's weird if you think about how drastically people's views change on certain players without them playing a full game. It's helped a lot for guys like Marshon Brooks and Iman Shumpert, two 2nd rounders a couple weeks ago who are now very likely to crack the mid to late 1st. On the other hand there are also players like Bismack Biyombo. He burst onto the scene at the Nike Hoop Summit and seemed like he would rise into the lottery. However, the emergence of some other players coupled with workouts that showed his weak offensive game (not a great finisher, poor hands, bad shooter) may have knocked him out of that range. I think he's a guy that really needs to be seen in games so his athleticism and defense can really be seen. There are always numerous examples in each draft, and we'll see who the big risers and fallers end up being on Thursday.
- Hype always plays a big factor in drafts. Sometimes this backfires as public opinion drifts too far the other way and player's weaknesses are emphasized too much. I think Jimmer Fredette and Kemba Walker have been the most victimized by that this year (along with Biyombo). Both are seen as scoring guards who might be incapable of being a lead guard for a team. I think the criticisms are fair, but on the other hand they've won and produced in college, and that's worth something as well, at least a shot to prove themselves in the NBA.
- Having said that, Jimmer Fredette's projected as a lottery pick and Ben Hansbrough is a projected low 2nd rounder to undrafted prospect. Not sure I quite understand that wide chasm, and I'm not saying that just because both are white point guards. Ok maybe that's part of it, but Hansbrough is a gritty player, produced when he had the opportunity in college, and is a good shooter with underrated athleticism. I'm not convinced that the gap between the two is really that big, maybe the difference between a 6th man scorer and a 8th man role player?
- None of the LA teams are picking until the 2nd round (with the Lakers picking 4 times), but I'm satisfied with that. A lot of critics have called this a weak draft, but this is mostly referring to the lack of superstars or even surefire All-Stars at the top of the draft. Towards the middle, the draft is fairly deep and there should be a glut of rotation/role players available. Both teams could use a nice big man off the bench, the Clippers continue their search for someone who can fill their hole at the 3 (until Harrison Barnes next year? Crosing my fingers), while the Lakers would like more forward depth and help at the PG spot too. If Jeremy Tyler or Jon Leuer are available, they'd fit nicely with both. Tyler was a highly rated high school prospect who decided to go overseas instead of college and adjusted poorly, but he's still got game and, maybe more importantly, size. Leuer is a hard worker and a good stretch 4 that teams covet nowadays. As for guards, I love the group of guys that might be available. Norris Cole, Nolan Smith, Malcolm Lee, and Shelvin Mack are all among guys that I think can help the Lakers in a year or two.
- Barring trades at the top spots, the unpredictability will start at the 3 spot with the Utah Jazz. It's pretty likely that Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams will go 1-2 (likely in that order, with maybe a 10% chance that it's reversed), and the next few picks will hinge on whether the Jazz look for a Deron Williams replacement (Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker), an athletic forward to eventually displace Andrei Kirilenko (Jan Vesely), or a big man to play with their Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap combo (Enes Kanter). They've all got big upside but significant risk as well, so this will play a huge role in shaping not just this draft, but the Jazz's future as well.
- Jimmy Butler might be my favorite prospect in this draft. The versatile forward was a beast at Marquette, but his story is incredible. Check out Chad Ford's piece on it here.
- If not Butler, Kenneth Faried might be my favorite. He's an extremely hard worker from a small school and he will almost certainly make a huge mark in the league immediately with his rebounding ability. Historically, in terms of college statistics translating to the pros, rebounding has had the most predictive ability. This bodes well for Faried, whose nose for the ball will serve him well in the next level.
- I thought Bismack Biyombo had the best name in the draft, or if not, then Kahwi Leonard. But yesterday some news changed my mind. Meet possible 2nd round draft pick Tanguy Ngombo.
- I can't be the only one who hopes the Morris twins end up on the same team right? It would just be amusing to me. Only real shot is with Charlotte at 9 and 19, unless some team trades to make it happen.
- Anyhow that's it for now. Eager to read more news/rumors tomorrow.
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