(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwq7BYOnDrM for those who don't understand the reference)
(Upfront warning, this post is long. Random commentary at the top, first round picks/previews at the bottom. And the back button is at the top of your browser if you're done reading at this point already. Which I can't really blame you for. Anyway.)
Shifting gears to the NBA playoffs, starting in about 8 hours. I wasn't going to write a post about this. Honestly I feel I have not much to contribute and there's a ton of stuff online, in newspapers, and on tv about it.
But (and I really do not intend to throw any of my colleagues under the bus or anything) I recently read this article/column in our school's paper: http://www.statepress.com/2011/04/11/picking-the-nba-playoffs-more-celtics-and-lakers/
Again to reiterate, I don't mean to be going into ombudsman-mode or criticizing unfairly...but I really question our sports' section decision to run this before the playoff matchups were even set. Luckily, there was not much movement, but two of the first round series this article previews is San Antonio vs. New Orleans and Los Angeles vs. Memphis, neither of which is happening.
Furthermore, even with an allowance for a word limit, analysis is light and, in my opinion, straight up uninformed in spots.
Once again for a third time, really don't mean to hate or anything here...but I can't really take this piece seriously when it's suggesting that the offensive prowess of Danny Granger, Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert will help the Indiana Pacers extend the Chicago Bulls to 6 games. Has the author looked at advanced stats? Or any stats? Or watched the teams play?
Not to mention the assertion that the Atlanta Hawks somehow lack "identity and purpose" and that the Dwight Howard led Orlando Magic will crush them in five games. Hey, I'm as big a Hawks hater as anybody. I think they're mediocre at best, are currently carrying the worst contract in basketball, and are constructed to remain mediocre for years to come. BUT. Matchups, matchups, matchups. Jason Collins is underrated in that most people don't realize he can actually do an adequate job defending Dwight Howard by himself in the post, somewhat containing him and freeing up the rest of the Hawks to stick to their men, also reducing the effectiveness of the Magic's 3 point attack. The Magic have no one else who can create and none of the guards should be problematic for Kirk Hinrich. Also, while a top 3 defensive team, Orlando has no above-average defenders aside from Howard, the likely defensive player of the year, meaning that players like (sigh) Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford are liable to go off, not to mention the nightmare that Josh Smith will be for Orlando's 3s and 4s. I still would struggle to pick the Hawks, but this is just an example of a minimum amount of depth I'd expect any playoff discussion, or respectable one at least, to scratch the surface of.
Look (for one last time, no disrespect intended, I don't want to get in trouble lol), I'm no guru. Honestly, most of what I know is some kind of amalgamation/regurgitation of what I read from people much smarter and more knowledgeable (<-- a surprisingly hard word to spell at 2:30 AM) than I am (not to say I take everything at face value. It's gotta at least make sense/be confirmed by numbers and the eye test). But don't you have to at least look at something instead of just trying to go it yourself? What do I know. I'm just an A&E writer.
But real quick, might as well take a brief, brief look at these series. Picking series length is never an exact science, and I'm going to say right up front for the most part it might just be numbers I think sound good.
WEST
1. Spurs vs 8. Grizzlies.
Not sure why the Grizz would want to tank for this matchup. Ginobili's injury takes away a primary ball-handler/scorer/wing defender for SA so it's important for them that he comes back soon, probably Game 2 at the latest. Memphis's frontcourt of Randolph and Gasol is nasty, but I don't trust them to be consistent enough to dominate the Duncan/Blair/McDyess trio for a whole series. The Spurs' experience (Parker, Manu, Duncan) and youth (Hill, Blair, Neal) are a dangerous combination. The Grizzlies start Sam Young.
Spurs in 6
2. Lakers vs 7. Hornets
Honestly the Hornets are the least scary team in the playoffs not named the Indiana Pacers. Chris Paul is a phenomenal point guard, but he has no help whatsoever, especially now that David West is out. As good as he is, he can't beat the Lakers on his own. Okafor is a nice defensive center, but he can't contain Pau and Bynum (not to mention Odom off the bench) himself. The Lakers are too tall, long, and even deep for the Hornets. This is a sweepable series for the Lakers. Knowing them, this means this could go 6 or 7 games.
Lakers in 5
3. Mavericks vs 6. Trail Blazers
Ah, the first round upset special of so many pundits. I get it. LaMarcus Aldridge is going to be a handful for Dallas, the Blazers have ridiculous athleticism and length, especially at the wing spots, Gerald Wallace has injected them with grit since his arrival, the Mavericks have no one behind Dirk, a not-so-great recent playoff history, no Caron Butler, and I'm honestly not sure what it is that Jason Kidd does on the floor (though he always seems to dish a ton of assists, grab a few rebounds and maybe hit a three pointer). Still...wait, no. There's no turn. Unless Dirk can carry Dallas on his back, which I'm not going to rule out, this is a dangerous matchup for the Mavericks. They need Jason Terry to light it up off the bench, maybe a vintage Matrix performance from Shawn Marion. I feel like both teams are good, not great, and not likely to last more than a round.
Blazers in 7
4. Thunder vs 5. Nuggets
I love this Denver Nuggets team. They have 7 or 8 guys who can go off for 20 points a game and, since the Melo trade, they've played without fear and their offense is clicking in a way it couldn't have with Anthony, an elite scorer but isolation specialist and all-world ball stopper. They can put out small or big lineups and not miss a beat. But OKC also made an important deadline move. More than any points, rebounds, or blocks, Kendrick Perkins brings intangibles. We saw how Boston cried their way to the end of the season without him. Perk gives OKC a nasty edge, and his defensive abilities frees up Serge Ibaka to become a weakside shotblocking menace. Add that to a Westbrook/Durant led offense and you have a team that can play with anyone on both sides of the floor.
OKC in 6
EAST
1. Bulls vs 8. Pacers
Ugh, really? The 37-45 Pacers are in the playoffs? For perspective, the Golden State Warriors finished 36-46 and their coach is probably going to get fired. Despite my previous comments, I like the Granger/Collison/Hibbert core as well as Tyler Hansbrough as an energy guy/sixth man type, and if Paul George ever puts it together, he can be a starting wing who can do a bit of everything. None of this matters for this series. The Bulls elite defense will stifle the Pacers' bottom 10 offense, Derrick Rose will do whatever he wants, and Chicago will walk through Indy.
Bulls in 4 (given that this game is at 1 ET Saturday, it's also the first series that could make me look like an incredible idiot)
2. Heat vs. 7. Sixers
I like the 76ers also. Doug Collins has done a good job with this young team and they have solid athletes and players across the board. But honestly, and I can't believe I'm about to say this, I think people might be underestimating the Heat a little bit. Philly has a good defense, but Miami has an elite defense AND an elite offense. Aside from Elton Brand, the Sixers' best players are guards and wings (Holiday, Iguodala, Williams, Young), which plays right into Miami's strength. Udonis Haslem hopes to return soon and, in the playoffs, coaches can shorten up their rotation and increase their stars' minutes, all of which benefits Miami.
Heat in 5
3. Celtics vs. 6. Knicks
Not sure why some people like the Knicks to upset Boston. Amare and Melo are elite offensive players who love to work out of iso sets. They'll get their points, but Boston will make them work for it. They're a proven team with one of the best defenses in the league. When it comes down to it, Boston will be able to get stops while the Knicks' defense basically consists of hoping that Boston misses a bunch of shots.
Celtics in 5
4. Magic vs. 5. Hawks
Kind of went into detail on this series earlier in the post. I still like the Magic here because Jason Collins is banged up and I just can't bring myself to pick the Hawks. Yes, Johnson and Crawford could go off...but they could also settle for and miss bad jumpers for however many games this last. Josh Smith could dominate...but he could also choose to not use his incredible athleticism and just jack up threes. I want to pick the Hawks here, I really do, but they're just so amazingly average and unimpressive that I can't trust them to beat a Magic team that was in the NBA Finals just two years ago. Atlanta matches up decently, but I've got a feeling that even if they start off on the right foot, Dwight will wear them down until he gets his and opens it up for his shooters as well. Given the Hawks' inconsistencies, this should be the closest series in the East but also could be a train wreck of a sweep as well.
Magic in 6
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