Saturday, March 26, 2011

Derrick Rose: Is he who we think he is?

In the past few weeks there has been so much buzz about Derrick Rose's MVP candidacy, whether it's Stan Van Gundy claiming that the media has all but crowned him MVP already, ESPN.com essentially agreeing, or a number of outlets vehemently stating that he should or should not win the award and how they can't see how the other side of the argument even exists.

It seems like so long ago that we were talking about LeBron James, after his 2nd consecutive MVP with fans and media alike already wondering if it a 3rd straight was inevitable, or Kevin Durant, with his humility, leadership, and 30 points per game making his case, as surefire MVP candidates.

But now it seems as if it's Rose's award to lose. Personally, I don't see it. Not to say I don't think he's a great player, which he clearly his. His defense seems to be getting better, and while his jump shot has very clearly not improved as much as some might lead you to think (his percentages on mid and long 2s is actually worse than last year), he has at least replaced relatively inefficient 2 pointers with 3 attempts, which effectively makes him a better shooter. He has clearly taken ownership of this Chicago Bulls team which has risen into the elite class of the Eastern Conference.

Still...I don't think any of this makes him a lock for the MVP. Defense in the NBA is clearly a team effort. Sure, great individual lockdown players always helps but only to an extent. The arrival of guru Tom Thibodeau and the continued maturation of players like Taj Gibson definitely played a big role in Chicago's improved defense. Rose may be getting better, but many people count the point guard spot as one of the least important spots in a team's defense. His offensive stats are impressive, and yet look at this comparison.

Player A: 22.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 8.3 APG, 1.8 SPG, 3.9 TO, 44.4% FG, 84.1% FT, 53.9 TS%, 23.8 PER
Player B: 24.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.1 SPG, 3.4 TO, 44.0% FG, 84.7% FT, 54.0 TS%, 23.3 PER

Pretty freakin identical right? So why is Player B, Derrick Rose, talked about like he absolutely deserves the MVP above and beyond everyone else while Player A, Russell Westbrook, is not even in the discussion? Yes, Rose took a team that was .500 and an 8 seed last year to the top of the conference (for now). But I think it's equally impressive that Westbrook's team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, has moved into the upper half of the deeper Western Conference this year while also being an 8 seed last year. OKC was a 50 win team last year and, avoiding a massive losing streak, will win over 50 this year, due in no small part to Westbrook's emergence as not just a second fiddle to Durant, but a sidekick and equal.

And this is before we even talk about James, still putting up gaudy statlines, Dwight Howard, a defensive juggernaut and growing offensive weapon, or Dirk Nowitzki, who can still ball and whose Dallas Mavericks looked lost without when he went down.

I'm not trying to diminish Rose at all here. He and his team have kicked their play up another level this year and that is certainly to be commended. But it seems like there are too many holes in his MVP argument and too many other viable and legitimate candidates to be speaking of him as a lock.

The bigger problem is one that's familiar with sports fan. What exactly does the MVP award mean? How do we weigh a player's stats with his team's record with the simple eye test we all use when we watch him play? The MVP means something different to every person, which is why there's often such great debate over it.

In the end, because the definition of the MVP is so nebulous and vague, I think it's remarkable that Rose is even in this position. He is no doubt a legitimate candidate for the award, and, in just his third season, that's saying a lot. The rest is for the voters to decide.


P.S. I should note I looked into the Rose/Westbrook comparison because of this post from Hoopdata.com: http://hoopdata.com/blogengine/post/2011/03/26/Nix-The-Knicks-Offense-is-Fine-Chatter.aspx

"Rose is definitely a terrific talent. If all NBA contracts were declared null and void at midnight tonight, and all NBA players were re-drafted, would Rose go first? Can you find meaningful statistical differences this year between Rose and Russell Westbrook (they sit next to each other on this page)? It takes some significant rhetorical limbo to get a point guard on an offense that's only a point per 100 possessions better than league average as the MVP...particularly when it's DEFENSE that's taken the team to new heights...and he plays one of the least important defensive positions."

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